Lafayette vs Army

Lafayette vs Army : College football is almost over. It just started. These things are always one and the same. With just a few weekends left, here’s the postseason picture, updated after Week 10’s games.

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Each week, I update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy as Selection Sunday nears, but more importantly, it’s some weekly fun!Lafayette vs Army

As always, remember bowl bids are not strictly based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.Lafayette vs Army

The 2018 college football season has been two things at once. On one hand, the number of weird division races and WTF conference contenders — Northwestern, Purdue, Washington State, and now Pitt and Arizona State — befitted a 1984- or 2007-style crazy season. The top of the rankings, however, has been incredibly static. Alabama and Clemson have been by far the two best teams in the land and haven’t shown any recent signs of wanting to change that.

Week 10, then, was the most 2018 week of the 2018 season. Alabama blew out its closest competition in the SEC West, almost immediately rendering a proud, physical LSU team hopeless in Baton Rouge, and Clemson absolutely humiliated a Louisville team that came within inches of winning in Clemson two years ago. The top two became more “top two” than ever, and the next two teams in the CFP hierarchy (Notre Dame and Michigan) looked fine, too.

The further beneath the surface you dig, though, the weirder things got. Surging No. 15 Utah got thumped. No. 8 Washington State nearly lost to Cal. No. 11 Florida got blown out by an unranked team on Homecoming. No. 10 Ohio State seriously considered losing at home to 2-7 Nebraska.

The ACC Coastal and Pac-12 South races got even weirder than before, and the unexpected results were bountiful. And Alabama and Clemson remained Alabama and Clemson.

Let’s look back at Week 10 action by looking at the difference between projection and reality. S&P+ had a very strange week (see the bottom of the post for more about that), but whether the numbers are dialed in or not, however, there are always surprises. Using the S&P+ projections as a guide, let’s look at which games played out as expected and which ones very, very much did not.